Tromso
17%
Fair odds 5.84
Viking
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.56
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tromso | Draw | Viking | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Viking
Viking are rated 161 points above Tromso (1561 to 1400), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tromso
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Tromso's chance of winning and takes the same from Viking's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Viking
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.5. Tromso score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Eliteserien); Viking concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Viking
Tromso LLDDW, lost 22 rating points; Viking WLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Viking
Tromso won 1, drew 5 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TromsoVikingTromso
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
23 conceded
08/02
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Viking
9/10 over 2.5
30 scored
17 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tromso | Draw | Viking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 14%7.13 | 9%11.22 | 13%7.95 |
| Level | 3%32.05 | 8%12.52 | 28%3.57 |
| Viking | 0%— | 1%78.12 | 24%4.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Tromso wins4Viking wins- L Viking vs Tromso 3-1
- L Tromso vs Viking 1-3
- D Viking vs Tromso 4-4
- D Tromso vs Viking 2-2
- L Viking vs Tromso 2-1
- W Viking vs Tromso 3-4
- D Tromso vs Viking 1-1
- D Viking vs Tromso 2-2
- D Tromso vs Viking 1-1
- L Tromso vs Viking 0-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tromso's side.