Carrarese
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.47
Virtus Entella
31%
Fair odds 3.20
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carrarese | Draw | Virtus Entella | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Carrarese and Virtus Entella are rated almost level (1322 and 1320).
-
Home advantage Favours Carrarese
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Carrarese's chance of winning and takes the same from Virtus Entella's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Carrarese
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.1. Carrarese score 0.9 a match against an average side (15th in Serie B); Virtus Entella concede 1.5 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Carrarese
Carrarese LWLWW, gained 15 rating points; Virtus Entella LDLWD, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CarrareseVirtus EntellaCarrarese
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Virtus Entella
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carrarese | Draw | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 24%4.21 | 5%20.62 | 2%58.82 |
| Level | 15%6.56 | 17%5.78 | 12%8.22 |
| Virtus Entella | 2%46.95 | 5%20.24 | 18%5.58 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Carrarese wins1Virtus Entella wins- L Virtus Entella vs Carrarese 2-1
- W Carrarese vs Virtus Entella 3-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carrarese's side.