Internacional
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Vitoria
22%
Fair odds 4.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Internacional | Draw | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Internacional
Internacional are rated 20 points above Vitoria (1338 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Internacional
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Internacional's chance of winning and takes the same from Vitoria's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Internacional
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.9. Internacional score 0.8 a match against an average side (13th in Brasileirão); Vitoria concede 1.9 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Internacional LWLDW, gained 10 rating points; Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Internacional won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
InternacionalVitoriaInternacional
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Vitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Internacional | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 32%3.14 | 3%32.26 | 1%— |
| Level | 17%5.88 | 16%6.08 | 6%17.73 |
| Vitoria | 3%35.09 | 6%16.53 | 16%6.08 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Internacional wins3Vitoria wins- L Vitoria vs Internacional 2-0
- L Vitoria vs Internacional 1-0
- W Internacional vs Vitoria 1-0
- W Internacional vs Vitoria 3-1
- L Vitoria vs Internacional 2-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Internacional's side.