Panetolikos
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.38
Volos NFC
30%
Fair odds 3.37
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Panetolikos | Draw | Volos NFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Panetolikos
Panetolikos are rated 45 points above Volos NFC (1295 to 1250), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Panetolikos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Panetolikos's chance of winning and takes the same from Volos NFC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Panetolikos
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Panetolikos score 0.7 a match against an average side (15th in Greek Super League); Volos NFC concede 2.0 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Volos NFC
Panetolikos LLLLL, lost 35 rating points; Volos NFC LLDLL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Volos NFC
Panetolikos won 4, drew 4 and lost 6 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PanetolikosVolos NFCPanetolikos
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
05/21
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Volos NFC
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
19 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Panetolikos | Draw | Volos NFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos | 24%4.11 | 5%22.17 | 1%69.93 |
| Level | 16%6.25 | 17%5.73 | 11%9.03 |
| Volos NFC | 2%43.29 | 5%19.19 | 18%5.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Panetolikos wins6Volos NFC wins- L Volos NFC vs Panetolikos 1-0
- L Panetolikos vs Volos NFC 1-2
- L Panetolikos vs Volos NFC 0-3
- D Volos NFC vs Panetolikos 0-0
- W Volos NFC vs Panetolikos 0-1
- L Panetolikos vs Volos NFC 0-1
- L Panetolikos vs Volos NFC 0-1
- D Volos NFC vs Panetolikos 1-1
- W Panetolikos vs Volos NFC 2-0
- W Volos NFC vs Panetolikos 2-3
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Panetolikos's side.