Newport County
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.26
Walsall
29%
Fair odds 3.45
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Newport County | Draw | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Team news
- Matty Jacob Doubtful
Manager Hayden Mullins said Jacob is back training but unsure whether this weekend is too early; no other Newport absences found in recent reports.
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension reports found for Walsall; a preview says Lee Grant may freshen up his XI with Leak, Furlong, Sprangler, Clarke and Dallas in contention, which is speculation rather than a confirmed rotation report.
Allowing for this news: Newport County 44%, draw 27%, Walsall 29% (xG 1.50 – 1.18). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, sports.yahoo.com, expressandstar.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Walsall
Walsall are rated 67 points above Newport County (1231 to 1164), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Newport County
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Newport County's chance of winning and takes the same from Walsall's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Newport County
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Newport County score 0.7 a match against an average side (12th in League Two); Walsall concede 2.2 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Newport County WLDDW, gained 23 rating points; Walsall WLWDD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Walsall
Newport County won 2, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Newport CountyWalsallNewport County
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Walsall
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Newport County | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 24%4.17 | 4%23.31 | 2%66.23 |
| Level | 18%5.63 | 16%6.33 | 11%9.21 |
| Walsall | 3%32.79 | 6%17.92 | 17%5.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Newport County wins4Walsall wins- L Walsall vs Newport County 2-1
- L Newport County vs Walsall 2-4
- D Newport County vs Walsall 0-0
- L Walsall vs Newport County 2-0
- W Walsall vs Newport County 0-3
- D Newport County vs Walsall 3-3
- D Walsall vs Newport County 1-1
- L Newport County vs Walsall 0-1
- D Walsall vs Newport County 3-3
- W Newport County vs Walsall 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Newport County's side.