St Truiden
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.87Bookmakers 52%
Waregem
23%
Fair odds 4.32Bookmakers 23%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Truiden | Draw | Waregem | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 52% | 24% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 1.81 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St Truiden
St Truiden are rated 52 points above Waregem (1512 to 1460), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St Truiden
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to St Truiden's chance of winning and takes the same from Waregem's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St Truiden
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. St Truiden score 1.3 a match against an average side (7th in Belgian Pro League); Waregem concede 1.5 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours St Truiden
St Truiden DLLWW, barely moved; Waregem LLLLL, lost 49 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Waregem
St Truiden will have had 3 days' rest, Waregem 9. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (St Truiden 52%, Waregem 23%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours St Truiden
St Truiden won 5, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St TruidenWaregemSt Truiden
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Waregem
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Truiden | Draw | Waregem |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Truiden | 33%3.04 | 5%21.41 | 2%61.73 |
| Level | 18%5.65 | 13%7.72 | 9%11.52 |
| Waregem | 3%30.77 | 5%20.24 | 13%7.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5St Truiden wins1Waregem wins- W St Truiden vs Waregem 3-2
- W Waregem vs St Truiden 0-2
- W St Truiden vs Waregem 2-0
- W Waregem vs St Truiden 0-3
- W Waregem vs St Truiden 0-2
- L St Truiden vs Waregem 1-3
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Truiden's side.