Sheffield United
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77
Watford
20%
Fair odds 4.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sheffield United | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sheffield United
Sheffield United are rated 94 points above Watford (1483 to 1389), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sheffield United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sheffield United's chance of winning and takes the same from Watford's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sheffield United
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Sheffield United score 1.1 a match against an average side (11th in Championship); Watford concede 1.6 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sheffield United WWDWL, gained 10 rating points; Watford WLLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sheffield United
Sheffield United won 5, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sheffield UnitedWatfordSheffield United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/03
Watford
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sheffield United | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United | 35%2.82 | 4%22.94 | 1%79.37 |
| Level | 18%5.45 | 13%7.42 | 8%13.19 |
| Watford | 3%32.68 | 5%21.10 | 12%8.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Sheffield United wins1Watford wins- W Watford vs Sheffield United 0-2
- W Sheffield United vs Watford 1-0
- W Watford vs Sheffield United 1-2
- W Sheffield United vs Watford 1-0
- W Sheffield United vs Watford 1-0
- L Watford vs Sheffield United 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sheffield United's side.