Altrincham
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Wealdstone
25%
Fair odds 4.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Altrincham | Draw | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Altrincham
Altrincham are rated 52 points above Wealdstone (1070 to 1018), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Altrincham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Altrincham's chance of winning and takes the same from Wealdstone's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Altrincham
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Altrincham score 0.5 a match against an average side (13th in National League); Wealdstone concede 3.5 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Altrincham
Altrincham LDWWL, barely moved; Wealdstone WLWLL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Altrincham won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AltrinchamWealdstoneAltrincham
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
Wealdstone
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Altrincham | Draw | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 35%2.88 | 5%18.32 | 2%51.28 |
| Level | 15%6.83 | 13%7.63 | 9%10.78 |
| Wealdstone | 2%41.49 | 4%22.57 | 14%7.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Altrincham wins4Wealdstone wins- W Altrincham vs Wealdstone 1-0
- D Wealdstone vs Altrincham 1-1
- L Altrincham vs Wealdstone 0-1
- D Wealdstone vs Altrincham 3-3
- W Altrincham vs Wealdstone 4-1
- D Wealdstone vs Altrincham 0-0
- L Wealdstone vs Altrincham 4-0
- L Altrincham vs Wealdstone 0-1
- W Altrincham vs Wealdstone 4-2
- L Wealdstone vs Altrincham 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Altrincham's side.