Hartlepool
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.25
Wealdstone
30%
Fair odds 3.34
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hartlepool | Draw | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Hartlepool and Wealdstone are rated almost level (1019 and 1018).
-
Home advantage Favours Hartlepool
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hartlepool's chance of winning and takes the same from Wealdstone's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hartlepool
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Hartlepool score 0.5 a match against an average side (22nd in National League); Wealdstone concede 3.5 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hartlepool
Hartlepool LLWWL, barely moved; Wealdstone WLWLL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Hartlepool won 1, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HartlepoolWealdstoneHartlepool
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/27
10/31
Wealdstone
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hartlepool | Draw | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 28%3.59 | 6%17.45 | 2%40.65 |
| Level | 15%6.78 | 14%6.90 | 12%8.11 |
| Wealdstone | 2%44.44 | 4%22.68 | 16%6.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Hartlepool wins1Wealdstone wins- L Wealdstone vs Hartlepool 7-0
- D Hartlepool vs Wealdstone 1-1
- D Wealdstone vs Hartlepool 1-1
- D Hartlepool vs Wealdstone 1-1
- D Wealdstone vs Hartlepool 4-4
- W Hartlepool vs Wealdstone 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hartlepool's side.