Scunthorpe
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18
Wealdstone
30%
Fair odds 3.34
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Scunthorpe | Draw | Wealdstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Scunthorpe and Wealdstone are rated almost level (1019 and 1018).
-
Home advantage Favours Scunthorpe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Scunthorpe's chance of winning and takes the same from Wealdstone's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Scunthorpe
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. Scunthorpe score 0.5 a match against an average side (17th in National League); Wealdstone concede 3.5 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Wealdstone
Scunthorpe LLLLL, lost 43 rating points; Wealdstone WLWLL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Scunthorpe won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ScunthorpeWealdstoneScunthorpe
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
Wealdstone
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Scunthorpe | Draw | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | 29%3.48 | 5%18.98 | 2%45.45 |
| Level | 15%6.80 | 13%7.71 | 11%9.40 |
| Wealdstone | 3%35.09 | 5%19.69 | 18%5.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Scunthorpe wins1Wealdstone wins- D Wealdstone vs Scunthorpe 1-1
- W Scunthorpe vs Wealdstone 2-1
- W Scunthorpe vs Wealdstone 4-1
- L Wealdstone vs Scunthorpe 3-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Scunthorpe's side.