Stuttgart
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88Bookmakers 57%
Werder Bremen
24%
Fair odds 4.12Bookmakers 22%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 22% | 24% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.68 | 4.60 | 4.50 |
Team news
- Angelo Stiller Out
- Justin Diehl Out
- Leo Sauer Out
- Josha Vagnoman Out
- Dan-Axel Zagadou Out
- Atakan Karazor Doubtful
Coach Hoeneß is weighing Karazor's fitness; Yannik Spalt is the reported replacement if he is out. Stuttgart are otherwise reported to have most of the squad available.
- Mitchell Weiser Out
- Keke Topp Out
- Jens Stage Out
- Felix Agu Out
- Salim Musah Out
- Skelly Alvero Out
- Moussa N'Diaye Out
- Paul Erevbenagie Out
- Niklas Stark Doubtful
Reports expect Eren Dinkci to replace Weiser in the starting XI; Thioune's side is otherwise largely unchanged from its recent setup.
Allowing for this news: Stuttgart 53%, draw 23%, Werder Bremen 25% (xG 1.99 – 1.31). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, deichstube.de, vfb.de, magazin.comunio.de
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stuttgart
Stuttgart are rated 96 points above Werder Bremen (1581 to 1485), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stuttgart
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Stuttgart's chance of winning and takes the same from Werder Bremen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stuttgart
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.3. Stuttgart score 1.6 a match against an average side (3rd in Bundesliga); Werder Bremen concede 1.3 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Werder Bremen
Stuttgart LWLDL, lost 13 rating points; Werder Bremen WWDDW, gained 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Werder Bremen
Stuttgart will have had 4 days' rest, Werder Bremen 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Stuttgart
Bookmakers rate Stuttgart higher than the model does: Stuttgart 57% against the model's 53%, Werder Bremen 22% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Stuttgart won 2, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StuttgartWerder BremenStuttgart
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/23
10/31
11/03
Werder Bremen
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 72%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 36%2.76 | 6%16.81 | 3%38.76 |
| Level | 15%6.71 | 12%8.56 | 10%10.12 |
| Werder Bremen | 3%39.53 | 4%25.19 | 12%8.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Stuttgart wins3Werder Bremen wins- D Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 1-1
- W Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart 0-4
- L Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 1-2
- D Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart 2-2
- L Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart 2-1
- W Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2-0
- L Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 0-2
- D Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart 2-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stuttgart's side.