Bolton
33%
Fair odds 3.07
West Brom
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bolton | Draw | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours West Brom
West Brom are rated 95 points above Bolton (1489 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bolton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bolton's chance of winning and takes the same from West Brom's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Brom
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Bolton score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Championship); West Brom concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours West Brom
Bolton WLLDW, gained 12 rating points; West Brom DWDWW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BoltonWest BromBolton
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/03
West Brom
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bolton | Draw | West Brom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 19%5.28 | 5%19.49 | 2%42.19 |
| Level | 12%8.13 | 16%6.26 | 15%6.68 |
| West Brom | 2%52.36 | 5%20.28 | 23%4.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.