Swansea
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.25
West Brom
28%
Fair odds 3.60
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Swansea | Draw | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Swansea and West Brom are rated almost level (1498 and 1489).
-
Home advantage Favours Swansea
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Swansea's chance of winning and takes the same from West Brom's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Swansea
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Swansea score 1.2 a match against an average side (7th in Championship); West Brom concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours West Brom
Swansea LWLLW, lost 15 rating points; West Brom DWDWW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Swansea
Swansea won 6, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SwanseaWest BromSwansea
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
West Brom
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Swansea | Draw | West Brom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 26%3.87 | 4%22.99 | 1%76.34 |
| Level | 17%5.97 | 17%5.90 | 10%9.89 |
| West Brom | 3%39.53 | 5%18.73 | 17%5.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Swansea wins3West Brom wins- W Swansea vs West Brom 1-0
- L West Brom vs Swansea 3-2
- D Swansea vs West Brom 1-1
- L West Brom vs Swansea 1-0
- W Swansea vs West Brom 1-0
- L West Brom vs Swansea 3-2
- W Swansea vs West Brom 3-2
- W West Brom vs Swansea 2-3
- W West Brom vs Swansea 0-2
- W Swansea vs West Brom 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Swansea's side.