Blackburn
22%
Fair odds 4.48Bookmakers 20%
West Ham
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88Bookmakers 57%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Blackburn | Draw | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 24% | 53% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Best price on offer | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.69 |
Team news
- Ryan Alebiosu Doubtful
- Tom Atcheson Doubtful
- Adam Forshaw Out
- Lewis Miller Out
- Matty Litherland Out
- Ryoya Morishita Out
- Mathias Jørgensen Out
Gady Beyuku could come in at right-back if Alebiosu is out; Moussa Baradji may be recalled in place of Kristi Montgomery.
- Kyle Walker-Peters Doubtful
- Keiber Lamadrid Out
- Edson Alvarez Out
Mathias Jørgensen-style fitness aside, Mavropanos returned from knee problem and Pablo Felipe was omitted at Cardiff for squad-rule reasons, not injury; Parker has only had one match in charge.
Allowing for this news: Blackburn 22%, draw 24%, West Ham 54% (xG 1.08 – 1.79). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: uk.sports.yahoo.com, sports.yahoo.com, whoscored.com, livescore.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours West Ham
West Ham are rated 93 points above Blackburn (1538 to 1445), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Blackburn
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Blackburn's chance of winning and takes the same from West Ham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Ham
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.8. Blackburn score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in Championship); West Ham concede 1.1 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Blackburn LLWLW, lost 7 rating points; West Ham DLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours West Ham
Bookmakers rate West Ham higher than the model does: Blackburn 20% against the model's 22%, West Ham 57% against 53%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BlackburnWest HamBlackburn
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
West Ham
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Blackburn | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 15%6.49 | 7%14.53 | 5%19.76 |
| Level | 7%15.08 | 14%7.30 | 22%4.53 |
| West Ham | 1%— | 3%34.36 | 27%3.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.