Portsmouth
29%
Fair odds 3.45
West Ham
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.21
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Portsmouth | Draw | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours West Ham
West Ham are rated 63 points above Portsmouth (1538 to 1476), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Portsmouth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Portsmouth's chance of winning and takes the same from West Ham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Ham
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Portsmouth score 1.1 a match against an average side (13th in Championship); West Ham concede 1.1 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Portsmouth
Portsmouth WDWDW, gained 29 rating points; West Ham DLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
PortsmouthWest HamPortsmouth
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
West Ham
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Portsmouth | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 18%5.41 | 6%16.21 | 4%27.62 |
| Level | 10%10.37 | 14%6.90 | 18%5.65 |
| West Ham | 1%72.99 | 4%24.94 | 24%4.08 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.