Cercle Brugge
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Westerlo
34%
Fair odds 2.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cercle Brugge | Draw | Westerlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Westerlo
Westerlo are rated 56 points above Cercle Brugge (1502 to 1445), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cercle Brugge
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cercle Brugge's chance of winning and takes the same from Westerlo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cercle Brugge
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.6. Cercle Brugge score 1.3 a match against an average side (8th in Belgian Pro League); Westerlo concede 1.5 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Westerlo
Cercle Brugge WLLLD, lost 7 rating points; Westerlo LDWWW, gained 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Cercle Brugge won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Cercle BruggeWesterloCercle Brugge
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
22 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/25
11/01
Westerlo
9/10 over 2.5
25 scored
25 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cercle Brugge | Draw | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | 27%3.66 | 6%16.39 | 3%29.59 |
| Level | 13%7.60 | 12%8.45 | 13%7.76 |
| Westerlo | 3%38.46 | 5%22.03 | 18%5.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Cercle Brugge wins4Westerlo wins- W Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge 0-2
- W Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo 4-1
- D Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo 1-1
- L Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge 3-0
- L Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge 4-2
- W Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo 2-1
- L Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo 0-1
- L Westerlo vs Cercle Brugge 2-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cercle Brugge's side.