The model and the bookmakers disagree. Gornik Zabrze: 73% here, 59% with bookmakers; Wieczysta Krakow: 10% here, 19% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Wieczysta Krakow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Elo model | 66% | 23% | 12% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.60 | 4.25 | 5.33 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze are rated 143 points above Wieczysta Krakow (1451 to 1308), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Gornik Zabrze
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Gornik Zabrze's chance of winning and takes the same from Wieczysta Krakow's.
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Attack against defence Favours Gornik Zabrze
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.8. Gornik Zabrze score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in Ekstraklasa); Wieczysta Krakow concede 2.3 (18th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze DDDWD, barely moved; Wieczysta Krakow LLLLW, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Wieczysta Krakow
Bookmakers rate Wieczysta Krakow higher than the model does: Gornik Zabrze 59% against the model's 73%, Wieczysta Krakow 19% against 10%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Gornik ZabrzeWieczysta Krakow
09/12
10/10
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Wieczysta Krakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 35%2.89 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.39 | 8%12.12 | 1%72.99 |
| Wieczysta Krakow | 10%10.49 | 7%13.95 | 9%11.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.