Blackpool
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.25
Wigan
28%
Fair odds 3.59
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Blackpool | Draw | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Blackpool
Blackpool are rated 32 points above Wigan (1316 to 1283), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Blackpool
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Blackpool's chance of winning and takes the same from Wigan's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Blackpool
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Blackpool score 0.8 a match against an average side (20th in League One); Wigan concede 1.8 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Blackpool DLWLL, lost 20 rating points; Wigan DWLLL, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Blackpool won 3, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BlackpoolWiganBlackpool
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
11/01
Wigan
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Blackpool | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool | 27%3.66 | 5%19.38 | 2%56.82 |
| Level | 16%6.38 | 17%5.93 | 11%8.70 |
| Wigan | 2%48.78 | 4%22.22 | 15%6.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Blackpool wins2Wigan wins- D Blackpool vs Wigan 1-1
- W Wigan vs Blackpool 0-2
- D Wigan vs Blackpool 1-1
- D Blackpool vs Wigan 2-2
- L Wigan vs Blackpool 1-0
- W Blackpool vs Wigan 2-1
- W Blackpool vs Wigan 1-0
- L Wigan vs Blackpool 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Blackpool's side.