Boreham Wood
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37
Wigan
31%
Fair odds 3.24
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Boreham Wood | Draw | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Team news
No absences reported
Sports Mole's preview (1 day old) names Rush as likely starter and a possible XI, with no Boreham Wood absences mentioned; the club's injury page reads no injured players, but I found no dated press conference on fitness.
- Scott Hogan Doubtful
- Dara Costelloe Out
Sports Mole expects Christian Saydee to start if Hogan is unavailable; Costelloe's regular-starter status and whether he has already missed three matches were not confirmed in the sources.
Allowing for this news: Boreham Wood 40%, draw 27%, Wigan 32% (xG 1.41 – 1.23). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, chad.co.uk, footballclubforums.com, borehamwoodnews.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wigan
Wigan are rated 57 points above Boreham Wood (1283 to 1226), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Boreham Wood
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Boreham Wood's chance of winning and takes the same from Wigan's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Boreham Wood
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Boreham Wood score 0.8 a match against an average side (1st in National League); Wigan concede 1.8 (17th best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood WWWWW, gained 25 rating points; Wigan DWLLL, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Boreham Wood
Wigan will have had 4 days' rest, Boreham Wood 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Boreham WoodWiganBoreham Wood
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
9 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/09
10/24
10/27
10/31
Wigan
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Boreham Wood | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 22%4.59 | 4%26.95 | 1%84.03 |
| Level | 18%5.71 | 16%6.38 | 10%10.15 |
| Wigan | 3%28.82 | 6%15.38 | 20%4.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.