Groningen
Model pick
79%
Fair odds 1.27
Willem II
8%
Fair odds 12.71
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Groningen | Draw | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 79% | 14% | 8% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Groningen
Groningen are rated 168 points above Willem II (1501 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Groningen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Groningen's chance of winning and takes the same from Willem II's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Groningen
Expected goals 2.9 to 0.8. Groningen score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Eredivisie); Willem II concede 2.2 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Groningen
Groningen LDLWW, barely moved; Willem II LLLLL, lost 39 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Groningen
Groningen won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GroningenWillem IIGroningen
9/10 over 2.5
24 scored
23 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Willem II
8/10 over 2.5
9 scored
35 conceded
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Groningen | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 50%2.00 | 2%46.30 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.24 | 7%13.95 | 3%36.90 |
| Willem II | 5%19.38 | 4%27.03 | 5%20.28 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Groningen wins1Willem II wins- W Willem II vs Groningen 1-3
- W Groningen vs Willem II 2-0
- W Groningen vs Willem II 1-0
- L Willem II vs Groningen 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Groningen's side.