Twente
Model pick
92%
Fair odds 1.09
Willem II
2%
Fair odds 48.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Twente | Draw | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| Elo model | 81% | 15% | 4% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Twente
Twente are rated 286 points above Willem II (1619 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Twente
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 4 points to Twente's chance of winning and takes the same from Willem II's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Twente
Expected goals 3.9 to 0.6. Twente score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Eredivisie); Willem II concede 2.2 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Twente
Twente WWWWL, gained 30 rating points; Willem II LLLLL, lost 39 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Twente
Twente won 3, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TwenteWillem IITwente
5/10 over 2.5
27 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Willem II
8/10 over 2.5
9 scored
35 conceded
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 5-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 4-1
- 6-0
- 5-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 9 | 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Twente | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 61%1.64 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 26%3.89 | 3%33.78 | 1%— |
| Willem II | 6%17.12 | 2%51.28 | 1%67.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Twente wins0Willem II wins- W Twente vs Willem II 6-2
- W Willem II vs Twente 0-1
- W Willem II vs Twente 0-1
- D Twente vs Willem II 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Twente's side.