Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Motor Lublin | Draw | Wisla Plock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Best price on offer | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin are rated 23 points above Wisla Plock (1349 to 1326), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Motor Lublin
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Motor Lublin's chance of winning and takes the same from Wisla Plock's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Motor Lublin
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Motor Lublin score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Ekstraklasa); Wisla Plock concede 1.9 (13th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin WDWWD, gained 22 rating points; Wisla Plock DLWLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Wisla Plock
Bookmakers rate Wisla Plock higher than the model does: Motor Lublin 48% against the model's 54%, Wisla Plock 27% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Motor LublinWisla Plock
10/25
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Motor Lublin | Draw | Wisla Plock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 31%3.20 | 3%29.07 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.27 | 14%7.35 | 7%15.31 |
| Wisla Plock | 4%25.25 | 6%16.16 | 15%6.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- W Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin 0-4
- D Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Motor Lublin's side.