Halifax
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18
Woking
28%
Fair odds 3.59
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Halifax | Draw | Woking | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Halifax
Halifax are rated 10 points above Woking (1096 to 1086), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Halifax
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Halifax's chance of winning and takes the same from Woking's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Halifax
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Halifax score 0.6 a match against an average side (6th in National League); Woking concede 2.6 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Halifax WLDWW, gained 21 rating points; Woking WLWLW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Halifax
Halifax won 7, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HalifaxWokingHalifax
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Woking
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 0 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Halifax | Draw | Woking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halifax | 25%3.93 | 4%22.32 | 2%62.11 |
| Level | 18%5.57 | 15%6.46 | 11%9.23 |
| Woking | 3%33.33 | 5%18.83 | 16%6.28 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Halifax wins1Woking wins- W Woking vs Halifax 0-1
- D Halifax vs Woking 1-1
- D Woking vs Halifax 0-0
- W Halifax vs Woking 1-0
- W Halifax vs Woking 2-1
- W Woking vs Halifax 1-2
- W Woking vs Halifax 0-1
- L Halifax vs Woking 0-4
- W Halifax vs Woking 2-1
- W Woking vs Halifax 2-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Halifax's side.