SK Rapid
Model pick
84%
Fair odds 1.19Bookmakers 76%
Wolfsberger AC
5%
Fair odds 21.14Bookmakers 9%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. SK Rapid: 84% here, 76% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| SK Rapid | Draw | Wolfsberger AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Best price on offer | 1.25 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours SK Rapid
SK Rapid are rated 135 points above Wolfsberger AC (1430 to 1296), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours SK Rapid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to SK Rapid's chance of winning and takes the same from Wolfsberger AC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours SK Rapid
Expected goals 3.0 to 0.7. SK Rapid score 1.3 a match against an average side (2nd in Austrian Bundesliga); Wolfsberger AC concede 2.4 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours SK Rapid
SK Rapid WWWWW, gained 48 rating points; Wolfsberger AC DLLLL, lost 41 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Wolfsberger AC
Bookmakers rate Wolfsberger AC higher than the model does: SK Rapid 76% against the model's 84%, Wolfsberger AC 9% against 5%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
SK Rapid won 7, drew 2 and lost 6 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SK RapidWolfsberger ACSK Rapid
8/10 over 2.5
32 scored
9 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/02
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/01
Wolfsberger AC
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/01
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 5-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | SK Rapid | Draw | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid | 35%2.83 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 35%2.89 | 4%22.99 | 0%— |
| Wolfsberger AC | 14%6.99 | 6%16.39 | 5%20.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7SK Rapid wins6Wolfsberger AC wins- W Wolfsberger AC vs SK Rapid 0-3
- W SK Rapid vs Wolfsberger AC 2-0
- W Wolfsberger AC vs SK Rapid 1-2
- L SK Rapid vs Wolfsberger AC 0-1
- L Wolfsberger AC vs SK Rapid 5-1
- L SK Rapid vs Wolfsberger AC 1-3
- D Wolfsberger AC vs SK Rapid 1-1
- W Wolfsberger AC vs SK Rapid 0-2
- D SK Rapid vs Wolfsberger AC 3-3
- W Wolfsberger AC vs SK Rapid 1-2
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from SK Rapid's side.