Hertha
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29Bookmakers 44%
Wolfsburg
32%
Fair odds 3.12Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hertha | Draw | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.15 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg are rated 28 points above Hertha (1470 to 1441), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hertha
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hertha's chance of winning and takes the same from Wolfsburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hertha
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. Hertha score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in 2. Bundesliga); Wolfsburg concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hertha WWDWW, gained 29 rating points; Wolfsburg WDWDW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Hertha 44%, Wolfsburg 32%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Hertha won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HerthaWolfsburgHertha
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
8 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/31
Wolfsburg
5/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 69%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hertha | Draw | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha | 23%4.27 | 4%24.10 | 2%58.48 |
| Level | 17%6.00 | 13%7.80 | 10%9.85 |
| Wolfsburg | 4%24.63 | 6%15.62 | 21%4.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Hertha wins2Wolfsburg wins- W Wolfsburg vs Hertha 1-2
- L Hertha vs Wolfsburg 0-5
- D Wolfsburg vs Hertha 0-0
- L Hertha vs Wolfsburg 1-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hertha's side.