Scunthorpe
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Scunthorpe | Draw | Worthing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Worthing
Worthing are rated 56 points above Scunthorpe (1076 to 1019), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Scunthorpe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Scunthorpe's chance of winning and takes the same from Worthing's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Scunthorpe score 0.5 a match against an average side (17th in National League); Worthing concede 3.1 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Worthing
Scunthorpe LLLLL, lost 43 rating points; Worthing LDWWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ScunthorpeWorthingScunthorpe
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Scunthorpe | Draw | Worthing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | 23%4.34 | 5%18.87 | 3%39.06 |
| Level | 13%7.75 | 13%7.58 | 13%7.89 |
| Worthing | 3%38.46 | 5%18.90 | 22%4.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.