Woking
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Woking | Draw | Worthing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Woking
Woking are rated 10 points above Worthing (1086 to 1076), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Woking
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Woking's chance of winning and takes the same from Worthing's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Woking
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Woking score 0.6 a match against an average side (8th in National League); Worthing concede 3.1 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Woking WLWLW, gained 14 rating points; Worthing LDWWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
WokingWorthingWoking
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Woking | Draw | Worthing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woking | 31%3.18 | 5%21.83 | 2%62.89 |
| Level | 18%5.50 | 13%7.49 | 9%11.16 |
| Worthing | 3%30.21 | 5%19.84 | 14%7.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.