Bristol City
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28
Wrexham
29%
Fair odds 3.42
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bristol City | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wrexham
Wrexham are rated 28 points above Bristol City (1475 to 1448), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bristol City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bristol City's chance of winning and takes the same from Wrexham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bristol City
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Bristol City score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Championship); Wrexham concede 1.3 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bristol City LWDLL, lost 16 rating points; Wrexham WLLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Bristol CityWrexhamBristol City
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Wrexham
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bristol City | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 28%3.54 | 6%17.67 | 2%47.17 |
| Level | 14%7.00 | 16%6.30 | 12%8.38 |
| Wrexham | 2%52.08 | 4%23.20 | 16%6.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Bristol City wins1Wrexham wins- D Bristol City vs Wrexham 2-2
- L Wrexham vs Bristol City 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bristol City's side.