Lincoln
34%
Fair odds 2.90
Wrexham
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.60
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lincoln | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wrexham
Wrexham are rated 36 points above Lincoln (1475 to 1439), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lincoln
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lincoln's chance of winning and takes the same from Wrexham's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Lincoln score 0.9 a match against an average side (21st in Championship); Wrexham concede 1.3 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Wrexham
Lincoln LLWDL, lost 23 rating points; Wrexham WLLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LincolnWrexhamLincoln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Wrexham
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lincoln | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 21%4.65 | 6%17.01 | 3%35.59 |
| Level | 12%8.43 | 16%6.34 | 15%6.49 |
| Wrexham | 2%60.98 | 4%23.15 | 21%4.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Lincoln wins2Wrexham wins- L Lincoln vs Wrexham 0-2
- L Wrexham vs Lincoln 1-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lincoln's side.