Yunnan Yukun
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88Bookmakers 58%
Wuhan Three Towns
26%
Fair odds 3.82Bookmakers 22%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Yunnan Yukun | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.62 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun are rated 71 points above Wuhan Three Towns (1376 to 1306), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Yunnan Yukun
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Yunnan Yukun's chance of winning and takes the same from Wuhan Three Towns's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Yunnan Yukun
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.6. Yunnan Yukun score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in Chinese Super League); Wuhan Three Towns concede 2.1 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Yunnan Yukun DDLWL, lost 16 rating points; Wuhan Three Towns LLDLD, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Yunnan Yukun
Bookmakers rate Yunnan Yukun higher than the model does: Yunnan Yukun 58% against the model's 53%, Wuhan Three Towns 22% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Yunnan Yukun won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Yunnan YukunWuhan Three TownsYunnan Yukun
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
25 conceded
07/26
08/01
08/08
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/06
10/10
10/17
10/24
Wuhan Three Towns
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
21 conceded
08/01
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 3-2
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Yunnan Yukun | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun | 29%3.46 | 4%22.88 | 2%44.25 |
| Level | 19%5.17 | 10%9.79 | 10%10.47 |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 5%19.12 | 5%18.35 | 15%6.82 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Yunnan Yukun wins1Wuhan Three Towns wins- D Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun 1-1
- W Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns 2-1
- L Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun 3-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Yunnan Yukun's side.