Bromley
21%
Fair odds 4.74
Wycombe
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bromley | Draw | Wycombe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wycombe
Wycombe are rated 139 points above Bromley (1356 to 1217), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bromley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bromley's chance of winning and takes the same from Wycombe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wycombe
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.9. Bromley score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in League One); Wycombe concede 1.7 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Wycombe
Bromley LLDLL, lost 28 rating points; Wycombe WDDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BromleyWycombeBromley
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
25 conceded
09/01
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Wycombe
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bromley | Draw | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley | 12%8.67 | 5%21.41 | 3%29.85 |
| Level | 8%11.90 | 13%7.85 | 19%5.26 |
| Wycombe | 2%63.29 | 5%21.88 | 34%2.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.