Oxford
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.71
Wycombe
19%
Fair odds 5.35
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oxford | Draw | Wycombe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Oxford
Oxford are rated 92 points above Wycombe (1448 to 1356), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oxford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Oxford's chance of winning and takes the same from Wycombe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Oxford
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Oxford score 1.1 a match against an average side (3rd in League One); Wycombe concede 1.7 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Oxford WDWDW, gained 9 rating points; Wycombe WDDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Wycombe
Oxford won 0, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OxfordWycombeOxford
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/04
Wycombe
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oxford | Draw | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford | 35%2.89 | 4%25.06 | 1%85.47 |
| Level | 21%4.81 | 13%7.60 | 7%13.62 |
| Wycombe | 4%28.01 | 5%20.83 | 11%9.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Oxford wins3Wycombe wins- D Wycombe vs Oxford 0-0
- D Oxford vs Wycombe 2-2
- L Wycombe vs Oxford 2-0
- L Oxford vs Wycombe 0-1
- L Wycombe vs Oxford 2-0
- D Oxford vs Wycombe 0-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oxford's side.