Eastleigh
31%
Fair odds 3.19
Yeovil
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.39
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eastleigh | Draw | Yeovil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Yeovil
Yeovil are rated 63 points above Eastleigh (1068 to 1005), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eastleigh
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Eastleigh's chance of winning and takes the same from Yeovil's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Yeovil
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Eastleigh score 0.5 a match against an average side (23rd in National League); Yeovil concede 2.7 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Yeovil
Eastleigh DLWLL, lost 10 rating points; Yeovil LWLWW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Eastleigh won 2, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EastleighYeovilEastleigh
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/28
10/31
Yeovil
6/10 over 2.5
23 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eastleigh | Draw | Yeovil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 21%4.86 | 7%15.11 | 4%27.40 |
| Level | 10%9.90 | 15%6.46 | 18%5.61 |
| Yeovil | 1%81.97 | 4%27.55 | 21%4.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Eastleigh wins2Yeovil wins- W Eastleigh vs Yeovil 2-1
- D Yeovil vs Eastleigh 1-1
- W Eastleigh vs Yeovil 1-0
- D Yeovil vs Eastleigh 2-2
- L Yeovil vs Eastleigh 1-0
- D Eastleigh vs Yeovil 1-1
- D Eastleigh vs Yeovil 0-0
- L Yeovil vs Eastleigh 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eastleigh's side.