Avispa Fukuoka
19%
Fair odds 5.27
Yokohama F. Marinos
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos are rated 115 points above Avispa Fukuoka (1401 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Avispa Fukuoka
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Avispa Fukuoka's chance of winning and takes the same from Yokohama F. Marinos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.7. Avispa Fukuoka score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in J1 League); Yokohama F. Marinos concede 1.5 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Avispa Fukuoka LLLLW, lost 29 rating points; Yokohama F. Marinos WDDDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Avispa Fukuoka won 4, drew 0 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Avispa FukuokaYokohama F. MarinosAvispa Fukuoka
7/10 over 2.5
8 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
Yokohama F. Marinos
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-3
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 18%5.53 | 10%9.83 | 7%13.74 |
| Level | 1%80.65 | 14%7.39 | 24%4.11 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 0%— | 1%— | 25%4.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Avispa Fukuoka wins5Yokohama F. Marinos wins- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka 2-0
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1
- W Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka 0-1
- L Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos 0-4
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka 2-0
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka 1-0
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka 2-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Avispa Fukuoka's side.