Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.70
Yokohama F. Marinos
18%
Fair odds 5.56
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are rated 69 points above Yokohama F. Marinos (1470 to 1401), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's chance of winning and takes the same from Yokohama F. Marinos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.9. Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in J1 League); Yokohama F. Marinos concede 1.5 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sanfrecce Hiroshima WWLWW, gained 11 rating points; Yokohama F. Marinos WDDDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F. MarinosSanfrecce Hiroshima
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Yokohama F. Marinos
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 33%3.05 | 2%42.02 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.61 | 13%7.63 | 4%23.15 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 5%20.37 | 7%14.73 | 14%7.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins5Yokohama F. Marinos wins- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos 6-2
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2
- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos 0-1
- D Yokohama F. Marinos vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0
- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's side.