Rochdale
31%
Fair odds 3.22
York
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rochdale | Draw | York | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours York
York are rated 89 points above Rochdale (1236 to 1147), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rochdale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rochdale's chance of winning and takes the same from York's.
-
Attack against defence Favours York
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Rochdale score 0.5 a match against an average side (24th in League Two); York concede 2.3 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours York
Rochdale LLDLD, lost 32 rating points; York LLWDD, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours York
Rochdale won 1, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RochdaleYorkRochdale
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
York
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rochdale | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 18%5.53 | 5%18.55 | 3%34.25 |
| Level | 12%8.67 | 15%6.78 | 16%6.17 |
| York | 2%52.63 | 5%21.05 | 24%4.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Rochdale wins3York wins- D Rochdale vs York 1-1
- L York vs Rochdale 4-1
- L Rochdale vs York 0-4
- L York vs Rochdale 1-0
- D Rochdale vs York 0-0
- W York vs Rochdale 1-3
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rochdale's side.