Luzern
34%
Fair odds 2.94Bookmakers 26%
Young Boys
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18Bookmakers 52%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Luzern | Draw | Young Boys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 20% | 46% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 26% | 21% | 52% |
| Best price on offer | 3.75 | 4.50 | 1.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Young Boys
Young Boys are rated 83 points above Luzern (1442 to 1358), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Luzern
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Luzern's chance of winning and takes the same from Young Boys's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Young Boys
Expected goals 2.0 to 2.3. Luzern score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in Swiss Super League); Young Boys concede 2.0 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Young Boys
Luzern DLLWL, lost 19 rating points; Young Boys LWWWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Young Boys
Bookmakers rate Young Boys higher than the model does: Luzern 26% against the model's 34%, Young Boys 52% against 46%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Young Boys
Luzern won 1, drew 7 and lost 11 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LuzernYoung BoysLuzern
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
19 conceded
08/09
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
10/31
Young Boys
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-3
- 1-3
- 3-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Luzern | Draw | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luzern | 21%4.70 | 7%14.51 | 7%13.57 |
| Level | 11%9.35 | 9%10.73 | 19%5.23 |
| Young Boys | 2%43.67 | 3%29.07 | 20%5.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Luzern wins11Young Boys wins- D Young Boys vs Luzern 3-3
- L Luzern vs Young Boys 1-2
- L Young Boys vs Luzern 2-0
- L Luzern vs Young Boys 1-2
- L Young Boys vs Luzern 2-1
- W Luzern vs Young Boys 5-0
- D Luzern vs Young Boys 1-1
- L Young Boys vs Luzern 2-1
- L Young Boys vs Luzern 4-2
- L Young Boys vs Luzern 6-1
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from Luzern's side.