Lech Poznan
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.44Bookmakers 64%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Zaglebie | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 64% | 21% | 16% |
| Best price on offer | 1.46 | 4.75 | 6.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan are rated 123 points above Zaglebie (1496 to 1373), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lech Poznan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Lech Poznan's chance of winning and takes the same from Zaglebie's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lech Poznan
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.9. Lech Poznan score 1.4 a match against an average side (1st in Ekstraklasa); Zaglebie concede 1.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan LWWDW, gained 17 rating points; Zaglebie WDWLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Zaglebie
Lech Poznan will have had 3 days' rest, Zaglebie 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Zaglebie
Bookmakers rate Zaglebie higher than the model does: Lech Poznan 64% against the model's 69%, Zaglebie 16% against 12%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan won 6, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Lech PoznanZaglebieLech Poznan
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
19 conceded
09/17
10/15
10/22
11/05
10/18
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lech Poznan | Draw | Zaglebie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 34%2.93 | 1%79.37 | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.65 | 9%10.54 | 2%45.05 |
| Zaglebie | 8%12.22 | 7%13.99 | 10%9.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Lech Poznan wins- W Zaglebie vs Lech Poznan 0-1
- L Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie 1-2
- W Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie 3-1
- W Zaglebie vs Lech Poznan 0-1
- W Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie 2-0
- D Zaglebie vs Lech Poznan 1-1
- L Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie 1-2
- D Zaglebie vs Lech Poznan 1-1
- W Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie 2-1
- W Zaglebie vs Lech Poznan 2-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lech Poznan's side.