Servette
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.87Bookmakers 50%
Zurich
24%
Fair odds 4.11Bookmakers 25%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Servette | Draw | Zurich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 22% | 24% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Best price on offer | 1.88 | 3.95 | 3.90 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Servette
Servette are rated 64 points above Zurich (1395 to 1331), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Servette
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Servette's chance of winning and takes the same from Zurich's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Servette
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.3. Servette score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in Swiss Super League); Zurich concede 2.0 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Zurich
Servette LWWLW, gained 22 rating points; Zurich WWWDW, gained 50 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Zurich
Bookmakers rate Zurich higher than the model does: Servette 50% against the model's 53%, Zurich 25% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Servette won 8, drew 5 and lost 7 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ServetteZurichServette
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/16
09/19
10/10
10/31
Zurich
9/10 over 2.5
22 scored
23 conceded
08/09
08/22
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/19
10/10
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Servette | Draw | Zurich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Servette | 30%3.34 | 4%24.63 | 2%64.94 |
| Level | 19%5.20 | 12%8.60 | 8%12.09 |
| Zurich | 5%21.60 | 6%17.18 | 15%6.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Servette wins7Zurich wins- L Zurich vs Servette 2-1
- W Zurich vs Servette 0-2
- W Servette vs Zurich 2-1
- D Servette vs Zurich 1-1
- L Zurich vs Servette 2-1
- W Zurich vs Servette 1-3
- D Servette vs Zurich 1-1
- W Zurich vs Servette 1-3
- L Zurich vs Servette 2-1
- L Servette vs Zurich 0-1
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from Servette's side.