Willem II
28%
Fair odds 3.59
Zwolle
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.63
Live probabilities. Before kick-off: 30% / 25% / 45%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Willem II | Draw | Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Best price on offer | 3.50 | 3.66 | 2.10 |
Team news
- Justin Hoogma Out
- Amine Lachkar Out
- Jaden Slory Out
- Hidde ter Avest Doubtful
Conflicting reports: one preview lists Vito van Crooij and Thomas Didillon-Hödl (hamstring) as absent, yet other recent previews name them in the expected XI, so they are not listed here. Other older squad reports list Kasper Boogaard and Thijs Muller, but no recent confirmation was found.
- Sherel Floranus Out
- Filip Krastev Out
- Givaro Rahajaän Out
Conflicting reports: Younes Namli, Ryan Thomas, Ibrahim Cissoko and Jamiro Burger appear as absentees in one preview, but other recent previews name Namli and Thomas in the expected XI, so they are not listed here.
Allowing for this news: Willem II 29%, draw 25%, Zwolle 46% (xG 1.32 – 1.69). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: onefootball.com, bet-experts.nl, mightytips.com, scoregpt.app
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Zwolle
Zwolle are rated 98 points above Willem II (1431 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Willem II
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Willem II's chance of winning and takes the same from Zwolle's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Zwolle
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Willem II score 0.8 a match against an average side (21st in Eredivisie); Zwolle concede 1.8 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Zwolle
Willem II LLLLL, lost 39 rating points; Zwolle WDWLL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Willem II 29%, Zwolle 45%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Willem II won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Willem IIZwolleWillem II
8/10 over 2.5
9 scored
35 conceded
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/31
Zwolle
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Willem II | Draw | Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 20%5.08 | 6%15.58 | 4%25.00 |
| Level | 10%10.40 | 13%7.46 | 17%5.78 |
| Zwolle | 1%67.11 | 4%25.00 | 24%4.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Willem II wins2Zwolle wins- L Willem II vs Zwolle 1-2
- W Zwolle vs Willem II 0-1
- L Zwolle vs Willem II 2-0
- W Willem II vs Zwolle 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Willem II's side.