Football

67,846Matches rated

799Upcoming

49%Called right

11-06Data until

Chinese Super League 1X2 Over 2.5Both score

11-08

Beijing Guoan

Chongqing Tonglianglong 73% 1.37 17% 5.94 10% 9.86 64%xG 3.3 52%1.92 11-08

Dalian Yingbo

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 48% 2.09 27% 3.72 25% 3.94 47%xG 2.6 51%1.95 11-08

Qingdao Hainiu

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 23% 4.40 23% 4.32 54% 1.85 60%xG 3.1 60%1.67 11-08

Shandong Taishan

Chengdu Rongcheng 62% 1.61 20% 4.98 18% 5.56 67%xG 3.5 62%1.60 11-08

Shanghai Port

Liaoning Tieren 77% 1.30 14% 7.09 9% 11.22 73%xG 3.8 57%1.74 11-08

Shanghai Shenhua

Qingdao West Coast 63% 1.59 20% 4.89 17% 6.05 63%xG 3.2 58%1.72 11-08

Yunnan Yukun

Wuhan Three Towns 53% 1.88 21% 4.83 26% 3.83 74%xG 3.9 72%1.39 11-08

Zhejiang Professional

Henan Songshan Longmen 53% 1.88 22% 4.63 25% 3.95 70%xG 3.6 68%1.47

Premier League

90 matches played, 290 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Arsenal	9	+9	24	79	53%	98%	–
2	Man City	9	+10	21	76	32%	95%	–
3	Brighton	9	+17	19	71	12%	85%	–
4	Bournemouth	9	+1	12	63	1%	40%	–
5	Liverpool	9	+2	15	62	1%	36%	–
6	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	59	<1%	21%	<1%
7	Chelsea	9	+4	16	56	<1%	9%	<1%
8	Brentford	9	+7	14	53	–	5%	1%
9	Tottenham	9	+0	12	53	–	5%	2%
10	Everton	9	+0	13	51	–	2%	3%
11	Leeds	9	+1	11	50	–	2%	4%
12	Fulham	9	-2	9	47	–	<1%	8%
13	Man United	9	-5	7	46	–	<1%	12%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	-6	6	45	–	<1%	14%
15	Newcastle	9	-3	11	43	–	–	22%
16	Ipswich	9	-4	11	42	–	<1%	26%
17	Coventry	9	-7	9	40	–	–	42%
18	Crystal Palace	9	-12	7	39	–	–	49%
19	Hull	9	+1	11	38	–	–	52%
20	Sunderland	9	-10	5	36	–	–	65%

Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.

Championship

168 matches played, 384 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
1	Middlesbrough	14	+11	28	89	40%	63%	34%	–
2	Southampton	14	+15	28	86	21%	44%	48%	–
3	West Ham	14	+15	23	85	21%	44%	48%	–
4	Birmingham	14	+13	26	82	10%	26%	58%	–
5	Wolves	14	+8	27	78	4%	11%	53%	–
6	Swansea	14	+5	26	75	2%	6%	43%	–
7	West Brom	14	+5	25	74	<1%	4%	36%	–
8	Norwich	14	+3	18	69	<1%	<1%	20%	–
9	QPR	14	+5	21	68	<1%	<1%	14%	–
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	68	<1%	<1%	13%	–
11	Stoke	14	+5	26	67	<1%	<1%	11%	–
12	Millwall	14	-1	18	66	–	<1%	9%	<1%
13	Sheffield United	14	+3	22	65	–	<1%	8%	<1%
14	Wrexham	14	-2	17	61	–	–	2%	<1%
15	Bristol City	14	-3	18	60	–	–	2%	1%
16	Cardiff	14	-1	15	58	–	–	1%	2%
17	Blackburn	14	-2	18	57	–	–	<1%	3%
18	Bolton	14	-7	17	55	–	–	<1%	5%
19	Burnley	14	-8	10	50	–	–	–	15%
20	Lincoln	14	-10	15	49	–	–	–	19%
21	Watford	14	-10	14	48	–	–	–	24%
22	Charlton	14	-11	14	43	–	–	–	52%
23	Derby	14	-18	7	38	–	–	–	81%
24	Preston	14	-18	5	31	–	–	–	97%

La Liga

109 matches played, 270 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Barcelona	11	+34	30	96	89%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	11	+18	27	87	11%	>99%	–
3	Ath Madrid	11	+14	28	77	<1%	97%	–
4	Betis	11	+3	23	66	–	57%	–
5	Sociedad	11	+0	19	62	–	30%	–
6	Ath Bilbao	10	+4	15	54	–	7%	<1%
7	Sevilla	11	-2	17	54	–	5%	<1%
8	Vallecano	10	-5	12	50	–	2%	3%
9	Villarreal	11	+0	12	48	–	<1%	4%
10	Alaves	11	-2	12	47	–	<1%	5%
11	Elche	11	-4	10	47	–	<1%	6%
12	Levante	11	-5	10	46	–	<1%	7%
13	La Coruna	11	+1	14	46	–	<1%	8%
14	Celta	11	+0	12	43	–	–	13%
15	Espanol	11	-1	11	42	–	–	20%
16	Valencia	11	-9	9	40	–	–	28%
17	Osasuna	11	-11	11	40	–	–	30%
18	Getafe	11	-8	12	39	–	–	36%
19	Santander	11	-14	11	37	–	–	52%
20	Malaga	11	-13	5	30	–	–	86%

Bundesliga

72 matches played, 234 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Bayern Munich	8	+19	18	82	98%	>99%	–	–
2	Dortmund	8	+8	18	65	2%	87%	–	–
3	RB Leipzig	8	+11	15	58	<1%	55%	–	–
4	Freiburg	8	+8	16	57	<1%	50%	–	–
5	Leverkusen	8	+2	13	57	<1%	48%	–	–
6	Werder Bremen	8	+3	15	53	–	22%	<1%	–
7	Stuttgart	8	-1	9	52	–	22%	<1%	–
8	Hoffenheim	8	-2	9	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Augsburg	8	+3	9	44	–	3%	2%	2%
10	Ein Frankfurt	8	-5	11	45	–	3%	3%	2%
11	Mainz	8	+0	10	43	–	2%	3%	2%
12	Elversberg	8	+0	13	42	–	1%	4%	3%
13	FC Koln	8	-3	9	39	–	<1%	9%	9%
14	Hamburg	8	-12	9	36	–	–	14%	22%
15	Paderborn	8	-3	9	35	–	–	16%	26%
16	Union Berlin	8	-12	7	35	–	–	16%	27%
17	M'gladbach	8	-11	4	31	–	–	16%	53%
18	Schalke 04	8	-5	6	30	–	–	16%	54%

Serie A

100 matches played, 280 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Como	10	+10	23	88	71%	>99%	–
2	Inter	10	+13	25	82	21%	97%	–
3	Roma	10	+18	24	77	6%	87%	–
4	Lazio	10	+16	28	72	2%	63%	–
5	Juventus	10	+3	17	68	<1%	36%	–
6	Milan	10	+9	21	60	–	7%	–
7	Napoli	10	+4	14	59	–	5%	–
8	Frosinone	10	+10	20	58	–	4%	–
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	53	–	<1%	<1%
10	Cagliari	10	-6	13	47	–	–	4%
11	Torino	10	-2	13	47	–	–	4%
12	Genoa	10	-4	13	46	–	–	6%
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	44	–	–	10%
14	Fiorentina	10	-8	8	44	–	–	11%
15	Parma	10	-7	8	39	–	–	29%
16	Lecce	10	-10	9	38	–	–	36%
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	37	–	–	41%
18	Monza	10	-7	7	37	–	–	42%
19	Udinese	10	-12	5	36	–	–	44%
20	Venezia	10	-14	3	32	–	–	73%

Ligue 1

81 matches played, 225 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Paris SG	9	+11	20	85	>99%	>99%	–	–
2	Paris FC	9	+6	17	58	–	48%	–	–
3	Monaco	9	+2	15	57	–	44%	–	–
4	Lyon	9	+8	17	56	–	36%	–	–
5	Lille	9	+6	18	54	–	22%	–	–
6	Rennes	9	+1	16	53	–	20%	<1%	–
7	Marseille	9	+7	15	52	–	15%	<1%	<1%
8	Brest	9	+4	12	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Strasbourg	9	-2	10	47	–	4%	1%	<1%
10	Toulouse	9	-1	10	46	–	3%	1%	<1%
11	Nice	9	+1	14	45	–	2%	2%	1%
12	Lorient	9	-1	12	42	–	<1%	4%	3%
13	Lens	9	+3	13	42	–	<1%	5%	3%
14	Auxerre	9	-10	10	38	–	–	12%	12%
15	Troyes	9	-9	8	33	–	–	19%	34%
16	Le Havre	9	-11	2	32	–	–	18%	39%
17	Le Mans	9	-7	7	32	–	–	19%	43%
18	Angers	9	-8	8	29	–	–	16%	62%

Eredivisie

99 matches played, 207 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Twente	11	+18	23	72	41%	67%	–	–
2	Ajax	11	+17	24	71	30%	58%	–	–
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	+22	23	68	17%	39%	–	–
4	Feyenoord	11	+21	25	66	10%	27%	–	–
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	+7	20	62	2%	8%	–	–
6	Heerenveen	11	+6	18	54	–	<1%	–	–
7	For Sittard	11	+0	19	50	–	–	<1%	–
8	Groningen	11	+2	15	49	–	–	<1%	<1%
9	Cambuur	11	+1	15	45	–	–	1%	<1%
10	Nijmegen	11	-2	11	44	–	–	1%	<1%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	-4	14	40	–	–	7%	4%
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	39	–	–	8%	5%
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	-6	12	37	–	–	11%	8%
14	Telstar	11	-7	9	36	–	–	14%	12%
15	Den Haag	11	-11	6	34	–	–	17%	18%
16	Zwolle	11	-11	11	34	–	–	19%	20%
17	Excelsior	11	-12	11	32	–	–	20%	32%
18	Willem II	11	-29	2	16	–	–	<1%	>99%

Primeira Liga

90 matches played, 216 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Porto	10	+21	30	79	49%	91%	–	–
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	79	47%	90%	–	–
3	Sp Lisbon	10	+12	21	68	4%	17%	–	–
4	Santa Clara	10	+9	21	59	–	<1%	–	–
5	Arouca	10	+6	20	56	–	<1%	–	–
6	Academico Viseu	10	+3	20	54	–	–	–	–
7	Sp Braga	10	+1	14	51	–	–	–	–
8	Gil Vicente	10	+1	15	49	–	–	<1%	–
9	Alverca	10	-1	11	47	–	–	<1%	<1%
10	Famalicao	10	+0	10	46	–	–	<1%	–
11	Moreirense	10	-4	14	42	–	–	2%	<1%
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	38	–	–	4%	3%
13	Maritimo	10	-12	8	34	–	–	13%	15%
14	Nacional	10	-9	7	33	–	–	16%	18%
15	Rio Ave	10	-14	7	32	–	–	18%	25%
16	Casa Pia	10	-14	7	31	–	–	18%	29%
17	Estoril	10	-14	2	30	–	–	18%	31%
18	Vitoria	10	+0	9	24	–	–	10%	79%

#	Team	League	Rating	Played
1	Shanghai Port	Chinese Super League	1508	170
2	Beijing Guoan	Chinese Super League	1497	171
3	Shanghai Shenhua	Chinese Super League	1470	170
4	Chengdu Rongcheng	Chinese Super League	1462	155
5	Shandong Taishan	Chinese Super League	1456	170
6	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	Chinese Super League	1408	170
7	Dalian Yingbo	Chinese Super League	1405	59
8	Zhejiang Professional	Chinese Super League	1389	155
9	Yunnan Yukun	Chinese Super League	1376	59
10	Qingdao West Coast	Chinese Super League	1371	89
11	Henan Songshan Longmen	Chinese Super League	1365	171
12	Chongqing Tonglianglong	Chinese Super League	1349	29
13	Liaoning Tieren	Chinese Super League	1329	29
14	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	Chinese Super League	1314	89
15	Wuhan Three Towns	Chinese Super League	1306	153
16	Changchun Yatai	Chinese Super League	1272	141
17	Qingdao Hainiu	Chinese Super League	1246	119
18	Meizhou Hakka	Chinese Super League	1240	124

Who wins

Tested on 59,594 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Goals model	49%	1.0211	0.612
Elo model	49%	1.0233	0.6135
Bookmakers, early odds (same matches)	51%	0.9976	0.5961
Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches)	51%	0.999	0.5971

53%

When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.

Goals markets

Log loss. Lower is better.

Market	Goals model	Naive guess	Bookmakers	Edge over naive
Over/under 2.5 goals	0.679	0.693	0.676	2.0%
Both teams score	0.686	0.691	—	0.6%
Half-time result	1.053	1.081	—	2.6%
First-half goal	0.601	0.605	—	0.7%
Half-time / full-time	1.907	1.962	—	2.8%

"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.

Chinese Super League 2026-11-08

Shandong Taishan Rated 1456

--days

--hrs

--min

--sec

xG 2.29 – 1.17

Chengdu Rongcheng Rated 1462

Shandong Taishan Model pick 62% Fair odds 1.61Bookmakers 41%

Draw 20% Fair odds 4.98Bookmakers 24%

Chengdu Rongcheng 18% Fair odds 5.56Bookmakers 35%

Add to slip: Shandong Taishan Draw Chengdu Rongcheng

The model and the bookmakers disagree. Shandong Taishan: 62% here, 41% with bookmakers; Chengdu Rongcheng: 18% here, 35% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory

Who wins

	Shandong Taishan	Draw	Chengdu Rongcheng
Goals model	62%	20%	18%
Elo model	45%	28%	28%
Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed)	41%	24%	35%
Best price on offer	2.30	4.00	2.70

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Neutral

-2 pts

Shandong Taishan and Chengdu Rongcheng are rated almost level (1456 and 1462).
Home advantage Favours Shandong Taishan

+18 pts

Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shandong Taishan's chance of winning and takes the same from Chengdu Rongcheng's.
Attack against defence Favours Shandong Taishan

Expected goals 2.3 to 1.2. Shandong Taishan score 1.4 a match against an average side (2nd in Chinese Super League); Chengdu Rongcheng concede 1.7 (6th best defence).
Last 5 matches Favours Shandong Taishan

Shandong Taishan WWDDW, gained 23 rating points; Chengdu Rongcheng LLLDW, lost 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Bookmakers' view Favours Chengdu Rongcheng

Bookmakers rate Chengdu Rongcheng higher than the model does: Shandong Taishan 41% against the model's 62%, Chengdu Rongcheng 35% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Past meetings Favours Chengdu Rongcheng

Shandong Taishan won 3, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

Shandong TaishanChengdu Rongcheng

2025-11-221425–15452026-10-24

Total goals

over / under

Over 0.596%1.04

Under 0.54%28.09

Over 1.586%1.16

Under 1.514%7.36

Over 2.567%1.49

Under 2.533%3.05

Over 3.545%2.20

Under 3.555%1.83

Over 4.527%3.74

Under 4.573%1.36

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Both score: yes62%1.60

Both score: no38%2.66

Shandong Taishan clean sheet31%3.23

Chengdu Rongcheng clean sheet10%9.84

Most likely scores

correct score

2-1 10%10.37
1-1 9%11.30
2-0 8%12.17
3-1 7%13.61
1-0 7%14.79
3-0 6%15.97
2-2 6%17.67
1-2 5%20.20

Every score

Shandong Taishan goals ↓ Chengdu Rongcheng goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	3	2	1
1	7	9	5	2	1
2	8	10	6	2	1
3	6	7	4	2
4	4	4	2	1
5	2	2	1

Half-time result

xG 0.79 – 0.62

Shandong Taishan ahead 36% Fair odds 2.82

Level 39% Fair odds 2.56

Chengdu Rongcheng ahead 25% Fair odds 3.94

First-half goals

Over 0.575%1.33

Under 0.525%4.00

Over 1.542%2.40

Under 1.558%1.72

Over 2.517%5.92

Under 2.583%1.20

Half-time / full-time

Half-time ↓ Full-time →	Shandong Taishan	Draw	Chengdu Rongcheng
Shandong Taishan	32%3.12	3%36.50	1%—
Level	24%4.23	10%9.85	5%18.83
Chengdu Rongcheng	7%14.86	6%15.58	12%8.19

Football

Premier League

Championship

La Liga

Bundesliga

Serie A

Ligue 1

Eredivisie

Primeira Liga

Who wins

Goals markets

Compare any two teams

Share of the pitch

Why this prediction

Rating, last 12 months

Total goals

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Most likely scores

Every score

Half-time result

First-half goals

Half-time / full-time

Corners

Cards

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