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Tennis (ATP) / Match analysis
Tennis (ATP) What-if matchup
Alcaraz C. Rated 2095
Final 2–1 6-7, 7-5, 6-3
Fritz T. Rated 1846
Alcaraz C. Model pick 100% Fair odds 1.00
Fritz T. 0% Fair odds —

Final result. Before kick-off: 81% / 19%

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory
81% To win 19% To win

Who wins

Alcaraz C.Fritz T.
Elo model 81%19%

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out
  • Overall strength Favours Alcaraz C.

    Alcaraz C. are rated 249 points above Fritz T. (2095 to 1846), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.

  • Last 5 matches Favours Alcaraz C.

    Alcaraz C. WWWWW, gained 29 rating points; Fritz T. LWWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.

  • Past meetings Favours Alcaraz C.

    Alcaraz C. won 4, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.

    Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

Alcaraz C.Fritz T.
2025-11-091796–22242026-11-01

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