FairXG
Tennis (ATP) / Match analysis
Rolex Paris Masters 2026-11-06
Paul T. Rated 1841
Final 1–2 4-6, 6-4, 3-6
Shelton B. Rated 1851
Paul T. 0% Fair odds —
Shelton B. Model pick 100% Fair odds 1.00

Final result. Before kick-off: 42% / 58%

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory
49% To win 51% To win

Who wins

Paul T.Shelton B.
Elo model 49%51%

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out
  • Overall strength Favours Shelton B.

    Shelton B. are rated 10 points above Paul T. (1851 to 1841), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.

  • Last 5 matches Favours Paul T.

    Paul T. LWWLW, barely moved; Shelton B. LWLWL, lost 48 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.

  • Past meetings Neutral

    Paul T. won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.

    Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

Paul T.Shelton B.
2025-11-091757–18992026-10-30

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