A. Lustenau
8%
Fair odds 11.83
SK Rapid
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.30
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| A. Lustenau | Draw | SK Rapid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Elo model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours SK Rapid
SK Rapid are rated 174 points above A. Lustenau (1430 to 1256), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours A. Lustenau
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to A. Lustenau's chance of winning and takes the same from SK Rapid's.
-
Attack against defence Favours SK Rapid
Expected goals 0.8 to 2.8. A. Lustenau score 0.6 a match against an average side (12th in Austrian Bundesliga); SK Rapid concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours SK Rapid
A. Lustenau LLLLW, lost 18 rating points; SK Rapid WWWWW, gained 48 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours SK Rapid
A. Lustenau won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
A. LustenauSK RapidA. Lustenau
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
SK Rapid
8/10 over 2.5
32 scored
9 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/02
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 1-2
- 1-3
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-4
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | A. Lustenau | Draw | SK Rapid |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lustenau | 8%11.79 | 9%11.26 | 18%5.51 |
| Level | 0%— | 5%20.41 | 34%2.94 |
| SK Rapid | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0A. Lustenau wins2SK Rapid wins- L SK Rapid vs A. Lustenau 5-1
- D SK Rapid vs A. Lustenau 1-1
- L A. Lustenau vs SK Rapid 0-5
- D A. Lustenau vs SK Rapid 3-3
- D SK Rapid vs A. Lustenau 1-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from A. Lustenau's side.