Aberdeen
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.50
Dundee
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aberdeen | Draw | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Dundee
Dundee are rated 37 points above Aberdeen (1458 to 1421), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aberdeen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Aberdeen's chance of winning and takes the same from Dundee's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Aberdeen score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in Scottish Premiership); Dundee concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee
Aberdeen LLWLD, lost 9 rating points; Dundee WLDWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Aberdeen
Aberdeen won 7, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AberdeenDundeeAberdeen
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Dundee
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/22
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aberdeen | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 24%4.10 | 5%18.87 | 2%45.87 |
| Level | 14%7.18 | 15%6.57 | 13%7.99 |
| Dundee | 2%44.64 | 5%20.24 | 19%5.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Aberdeen wins5Dundee wins- L Dundee vs Aberdeen 2-0
- L Dundee vs Aberdeen 3-2
- L Aberdeen vs Dundee 2-3
- W Dundee vs Aberdeen 1-3
- W Aberdeen vs Dundee 4-0
- W Dundee vs Aberdeen 1-2
- W Aberdeen vs Dundee 4-1
- W Dundee vs Aberdeen 1-2
- D Aberdeen vs Dundee 0-0
- L Dundee vs Aberdeen 1-0
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aberdeen's side.