Academico Viseu
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29
Alverca
30%
Fair odds 3.36
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Academico Viseu | Draw | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu are rated 50 points above Alverca (1533 to 1483), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Academico Viseu
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Academico Viseu's chance of winning and takes the same from Alverca's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Academico Viseu
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Academico Viseu score 1.2 a match against an average side (6th in Primeira Liga); Alverca concede 1.2 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Academico Viseu WWWWW, gained 37 rating points; Alverca LLWWW, gained 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Academico ViseuAlvercaAcademico Viseu
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/20
10/10
10/25
11/01
Alverca
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/12
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Academico Viseu | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | 26%3.84 | 5%19.72 | 2%51.55 |
| Level | 16%6.34 | 15%6.47 | 12%8.56 |
| Alverca | 2%40.49 | 5%20.33 | 17%6.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.