Accrington
32%
Fair odds 3.14
Wycombe
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Accrington | Draw | Wycombe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 27% | 42% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Team news
- Josh Woods Doubtful
Sports Mole (1 day old) says the Accrington side could be unchanged from the Northampton draw, with Woods' availability uncertain.
No absences reported
No recent (last three days) Wycombe injury or suspension report found. A Wycombe injury list dated 31 Oct shows Danny Ings out, but a 1-day-old preview says Ings has been used from the bench and could start, so this is treated as stale. Wycombe Official Site preview also exists but its contents were not accessible.
Allowing for this news: Accrington 27%, draw 26%, Wycombe 47% (xG 1.16 – 1.58). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, wwfc.com, wycombefcnews.co.uk, accringtonstanley.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wycombe
Wycombe are rated 160 points above Accrington (1356 to 1196), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Accrington
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Accrington's chance of winning and takes the same from Wycombe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wycombe
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Accrington score 0.7 a match against an average side (5th in League Two); Wycombe concede 1.7 (14th best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Accrington
Accrington DWDWD, gained 37 rating points; Wycombe WDDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Wycombe
Accrington won 1, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AccringtonWycombeAccrington
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Wycombe
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Accrington | Draw | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington | 16%6.13 | 4%24.04 | 2%53.76 |
| Level | 13%7.46 | 15%6.52 | 14%7.32 |
| Wycombe | 3%38.17 | 6%16.61 | 27%3.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Accrington wins3Wycombe wins- L Accrington vs Wycombe 0-2
- L Wycombe vs Accrington 1-0
- W Accrington vs Wycombe 3-2
- L Wycombe vs Accrington 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Accrington's side.