AEK
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.75
PAOK
19%
Fair odds 5.23
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AEK | Draw | PAOK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AEK
AEK are rated 30 points above PAOK (1512 to 1481), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AEK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to AEK's chance of winning and takes the same from PAOK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AEK
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. AEK score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in Greek Super League); PAOK concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
AEK LLWLL, lost 23 rating points; PAOK WLWLW, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
AEK won 6, drew 7 and lost 7 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AEKPAOKAEK
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
11/01
11/04
PAOK
9/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AEK | Draw | PAOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK | 32%3.14 | 4%28.17 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.56 | 14%7.25 | 7%14.12 |
| PAOK | 4%25.32 | 5%18.76 | 12%8.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6AEK wins7PAOK wins- D PAOK vs AEK 1-1
- W AEK vs PAOK 3-0
- D PAOK vs AEK 0-0
- L AEK vs PAOK 0-2
- L PAOK vs AEK 1-0
- L AEK vs PAOK 2-3
- W PAOK vs AEK 1-2
- D AEK vs PAOK 1-1
- L PAOK vs AEK 3-2
- D AEK vs PAOK 2-2
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from AEK's side.