AFC Wimbledon
33%
Fair odds 3.01
Barnsley
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barnsley
Barnsley are rated 42 points above AFC Wimbledon (1288 to 1247), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AFC Wimbledon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to AFC Wimbledon's chance of winning and takes the same from Barnsley's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. AFC Wimbledon score 0.6 a match against an average side (24th in League One); Barnsley concede 2.0 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
AFC Wimbledon LDLLL, lost 27 rating points; Barnsley DLLLL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AFC WimbledonBarnsleyAFC Wimbledon
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/02
09/07
09/12
09/17
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Barnsley
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 19%5.33 | 5%19.76 | 2%40.65 |
| Level | 13%7.81 | 15%6.51 | 15%6.68 |
| Barnsley | 2%46.73 | 5%19.69 | 23%4.28 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1AFC Wimbledon wins0Barnsley wins- D Barnsley vs AFC Wimbledon 3-3
- W AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from AFC Wimbledon's side.