Albacete
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.47
Tenerife
31%
Fair odds 3.24
The prediction
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–010%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Albacete | Draw | Tenerife | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Albacete and Tenerife are rated almost level (1322 and 1330).
-
Home advantage Favours Albacete
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Albacete's chance of winning and takes the same from Tenerife's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Albacete
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.1. Albacete score 0.9 a match against an average side (19th in La Liga 2); Tenerife concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Albacete WWLLL, lost 12 rating points; Tenerife DDDLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Albacete won 2, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AlbaceteTenerifeAlbacete
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/31
Tenerife
2/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/13
09/19
09/26
10/05
10/12
10/25
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Albacete | Draw | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete | 25%3.98 | 5%19.01 | 2%55.25 |
| Level | 14%7.04 | 18%5.60 | 12%8.04 |
| Tenerife | 2%57.47 | 4%22.42 | 17%5.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Albacete wins3Tenerife wins- L Tenerife vs Albacete 3-1
- W Albacete vs Tenerife 2-1
- W Albacete vs Tenerife 1-0
- L Tenerife vs Albacete 2-0
- L Tenerife vs Albacete 1-0
- D Albacete vs Tenerife 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Albacete's side.